Countdown Begins to Possible End of U.S. War in Afghanistan

KABUL, Afghanistan -- The United States and the Taliban started the clock early Saturday on a plan to end America's longest war after more than 18 years, beginning with what they hope will be seven days of greatly reduced violence in Afghanistan.If the weeklong, partial truce holds, the two sides have agreed, they will meet on Feb. 29 to sign an agreement laying out a timetable for the U.S. to withdraw its troops.The pact is also meant to clear the way for peace talks involving the Taliban and the government in Kabul, and U.S. officials point to the reduction in hostilities as the first link in a fragile chain of events that could deliver peace in Afghanistan after more than four decades of conflict.But the Afghan government is deep in a political crisis after a bitterly disputed presidential election in which the opposition candidate claimed victory despite President Ashraf Ghani having been declared the winner. With rival claimants to legitimacy, it is unclear who would negotiate with the Taliban, whether they would be prepared to enter talks while struggling to control the government, or what kind of mandate they would have.U.S. negotiators demanded the seven-day reduction in violence, which went into effect after midnight Saturday, as a public show of the Taliban's good faith and its ability to control its fractious and scattered forces. Now it is the government in Kabul whose cohesion and command are more in doubt."I call on all Afghans to seize this opportunity," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote on Twitter on Friday.A previous attempt at finalizing a deal between the Taliban and the U.S. fell apart on the verge of completion in September, with President Donald Trump citing a new outbreak of violence, and the same risk hangs over the latest try.And even if the carefully choreographed rollout of the agreement does presage the end of the American phase of the war, the plan might not spell the end of the war itself. Trump is determined, one way or another, to reduce U.S. involvement in Afghanistan to a minimum, and the Taliban's long-term commitment to compromise and power-sharing remains open to question.Zalmay Khalilzad, the chief U.S. negotiator, recently arrived in Kabul to prepare for the announcement of an agreement, to find a government that was threatening to split apart. He has been shuttling in a convoy of armed vehicles between the heavily guarded homes of the divided elite in Kabul, trying to keep the peace.In September, Afghanistan held a presidential election marred by Taliban attacks and allegations of fraud and mismanagement. It was not until Tuesday -- after nearly five months of delays, acrimonious disputes and a partial audit of the results -- that the election commission declared that Ghani had won another five-year term.His main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, also declared victory, accusing the election body of favoring the incumbent, and called on his supporters to form their own government.The U.S. government still has not acknowledged Ghani's victory. The only public comment it has made on the results hinted at concern that the electoral mess might make matters worse."It is likely that these developments could add to the challenges Afghanistan faces, including the challenges of the peace process," Molly Phee, Khalilzad's deputy in negotiations, said Tuesday at the United States Institute of Peace, a government-funded policy group in Washington. "Our priority, and what we believe to be the priority of most Afghans, remains peace and the peace process."Since U.S. officials couldn't persuade Ghani to postpone the election, the yearlong talks with the Taliban, primarily in Doha, Qatar, became a race against Afghanistan's political calendar. Election after election has been so tainted that U.S. diplomats were essentially trying to rush through a peace deal with the Taliban before Afghanistan's latest political crisis could complicate the equation.They almost finalized a deal with the insurgents last summer that would have pushed back the election, but Trump called off the talks on the eve of the signing, and the vote went ahead.The political showdown pits technocratic Ghani and his circle of young advisers against some of the most hardened figures of recent Afghan history, survivors of years of battle and deal-making. One of Abdullah's key supporters is Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, who has been accused of an array of violent acts, and until recently served as Ghani's vice president.Dostum, who has one of the most unified bases of support in the north, was the first to call for a parallel government, and to urge protests and the announcement of governors in northern provinces. Abdullah's fate could turn on how willing the general is to push the crisis, and how receptive he is to a deal with Ghani.Khalilzad, who was expected to return to Doha to prepare for the signing ceremony, has extended his stay in Afghanistan to manage the political tensions, meeting repeatedly with Ghani, Abdullah and other key political players.Late Thursday, Khalilzad told a meeting of Dostum's party that the announcement of election results had caught him by surprise, according to one participant. He and Gen. Austin S. Miller, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, urged the participants to make sure that political rallies don't turn to violence.Analysts said the conflict was unlikely to affect the first steps of the peace process, as U.S. officials had made it clear to everyone that their priority was starting the violence reduction. But the high-stakes political showdown would make it difficult to move on to the next phase, when a unified negotiating team that includes the Afghan government is expected to sit across from the Taliban."The U.S. has clearly put its weight on the peace issue, and that message is clear to all sides -- with President Ghani agreeing to reduction of violence -- there is a consensus among the parties," said Omar Sadr, an assistant professor of political science at the American University of Afghanistan."But the election issue has created a huge gap between the political sides and that needs to be bridged in a very short time for this process to move forward," he added. "And I don't know how that can happen without Khalilzad and the U.S. stepping in."Sadr said the Americans remaining quiet on the election results gives them "maneuver room" to broker a settlement to the political crisis -- which could provide leverage to make sure the peace process doesn't fall apart.The seven-day violence reduction being rolled out closely resembles a cease-fire, barring some exceptions, officials said.The Taliban has agreed to hold back attacks on cities, highways, and major security outposts throughout the country. In return, Afghan government forces and the U.S. military, which has stepped up airstrikes in the last year, have agreed to hold back their operations.In preparation for the start of the violence reduction, Ghani has been meeting all provincial security and political leaders in recent days. He told one group that the Taliban currently carry out about 80 attacks a day, and that a reduction to about 10 attacks would be seen as a successful implementation."Our brave security and defense forces will only act in defense of themselves and the honorable people of Afghanistan," he said in a televised address late Friday.Taliban leaders scrambled to get their message of minimizing violence to the lowest units of what has increasingly been a decentralized force.In private WhatsApp messages, Taliban commanders can be heard taking pains to strike a nuance: they want fighters to hold fire and not attack, but to stay vigilant in their positions and not venture into cities and government territory.The group has long feared that a full cease-fire could divide its ranks and make remobilizing difficult if the peace process crumbled and all-out fighting resumed.This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2020 The New York Times Company

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